Moscow, 1949-2010

The summer of 2010 was the hottest year on record.  Is this an indication of global warming, or a one-off event likely not to repeated for a long time to come.

Yearly TMax for July:

Take 2010 out and the trend is flat, no over all increase in TMax.  2011 will very likely reset that increasing slope back to flat.

Daily range of temps from May through September.  The red line is the maximum reached on that day regardless of the year except fo 2010.  Blue line is the lowest TMax reached on any given day except for 2010.  The thin black line is the daily averages from 1949 to 2009, while the orange lines are the upper and lower standard deviations for the same range of years.  The thick black line is the highest daily temp for 2010 from May through September.

Yes, it was a hot summer.  But this still does not show us if this is a trend or one-off.  A count of the number of days above 30C will show us something interesting.

Notice 2010 is clearly a one-off.  There is no over all trend.  In fact, 2009 had only one day all that summer above 30C.  Seems 2010 just caught up.  Anyone want to guess as to what 2011 will be like in Moscow?  prediction.  Nothing unusual, in fact going on a limb, 2011 will be  cool summer in Moscow.  Few days over 30C.

But such will be forgotten in the halls of AGW.  Only the real extreme one offs will  be taughted as indicators the planet is warming out of control.

Data came form here:

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/MOSCOW/276120.htm

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