Introduction to Canadian Surface Temperatures

Yet another damn blog on global warming.  But this one will be different.  It will show the data, gaphically, of what temperatures are doing in Canada, and other parts of the world, to see if was are indeed heating up.

I’ve been downloading all 1300+ stations of Canadian temperature records from Environment Canada, and databasing the records in order to analyze trends. That is, to confirm or refute AGW’s claim the planet is heating up.

I have long noted to anyone who will listen that the average of the mean temp anomalies we keep seeing of increasing temps can be obtained by not having hotter summers. In fact, one can get an increase in the average temp by several ways:

  1. Increase the summer maximum temperatures and increasing the winter minimum temperatures.
  2. Increase the summer maximum temperatures but no change in the winter minimum temperatures
  3. No increase the summer maximum temperatures but increase the winter minimum temperature
  4. Decrease the summer temperatures a little, but increase the winter minimum temperatures more.

All four can give the exact same average mean temperature. Thus detail of what is physically going on is lost using the average mean temperature. (We will soon see that #4 is what has actually happened.)

Here is an analogy. You set your home temperature to 23C all day with climate control. Throughout the year if you averaged all the daily temperatures you will get 23C. If however, you decide to save some money and during the winters you allow your nighttime temperature to drop to 10C. You have just pulled the average temperature for the year down to around 18C.

Thus, this “global warming” could just be a narrowing of the range in temps, and the surface station data will show exactly that.

I have already put on line two documents of the first analysis, more will follow here as opposed to posting them on Scribd.

There will be separate blogs for each of these to get comments.

Also see these two Youtube videos.

———————————– NOTE —————————————

Now, I want this blog to be open for all sides. Science advances with healthy skepticism, or it’s just dogma. But I will NOT tolerate name calling, harassment, threats, or general abuse from any side, you comments will be simply not posted. So don’t bother.

I will also be posting blog of the source code (VB6) and SQL (Access) code I use to get the records as well as how the data was stored. So everything will be transparent.

———————————– DISCLAIMER —————————————

I do not work for any fossil fuel company.

I do not recieve any funds from any organization or any person to fight AGW.

I’m a retired Toronto Fire Fighter and 25 year professional software developer. One of my past clients back in the mid 1990’s was Sunoco where I was contracted to build their natural gas call center software. That project was the only 14 months I have “worked for” a fossil fuel company.

For 30 years I have also faught creationism. One of my efforts was published. See:

Wakefield, J. R. (1988), “The geology of ‘Gentry’s Tiny Mystery'”, Journal of Geological Education 36: 161–175, .

Wakefield, J. R., 1987-88, “Gentry’s Tiny Mystery – unsupported by geology,” Creation/Evolution, v. 22, p. 13–33.

at 8:39 AM

10 Responses to Introduction to Canadian Surface Temperatures

    • jrwakefield says:

      NIce try. I do know what I’m doing, I have done this kind of analysis in the private sector professionally for 20 years. Now, if you have a problem with this, SHOW ME!!

  1. Devin Emery says:

    I’m glad that an educated scientist such as yourself can single-handedly refute the evidence and facts supported by thousands of well-respected, professional climatologists from around the world. Keep on fighting the good fight.

    [Tad sarcastic arn’t we? It’s about the evidence, not who is whom. JRW]

  2. Roberto Sales says:

    From FORBES.COM:
    NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.
    Study co-author Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite, reports that real-world data from NASA’s Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into alarmist computer models.
    “The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show,” Spencer said in a July 26 University of Alabama press release. “There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans.”
    In addition to finding that far less heat is being trapped than alarmist computer models have predicted, the NASA satellite data show the atmosphere begins shedding heat into space long before United Nations computer models predicted.
    The new findings are extremely important and should dramatically alter the global warming debate.
    Scientists on all sides of the global warming debate are in general agreement about how much heat is being directly trapped by human emissions of carbon dioxide (the answer is “not much”). However, the single most important issue in the global warming debate is whether carbon dioxide emissions will indirectly trap far more heat by causing large increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds. Alarmist computer models assume human carbon dioxide emissions indirectly cause substantial increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds (each of which are very effective at trapping heat), but real-world data have long shown that carbon dioxide emissions are not causing as much atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds as the alarmist computer models have predicted.
    The new NASA Terra satellite data are consistent with long-term NOAA and NASA data indicating atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing in the manner predicted by alarmist computer models. The Terra satellite data also support data collected by NASA’s ERBS satellite showing far more longwave radiation (and thus, heat) escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than alarmist computer models had predicted. Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than alarmist computer models have predicted.
    In short, the central premise of alarmist global warming theory is that carbon dioxide emissions should be directly and indirectly trapping a certain amount of heat in the earth’s atmosphere and preventing it from escaping into space. Real-world measurements, however, show far less heat is being trapped in the earth’s atmosphere than the alarmist computer models predict, and far more heat is escaping into space than the alarmist computer models predict.
    When objective NASA satellite data, reported in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, show a “huge discrepancy” between alarmist climate models and real-world facts, climate scientists, the media and our elected officials would be wise to take notice. Whether or not they do so will tell us a great deal about how honest the purveyors of global warming alarmism truly are

  3. Glacier says:

    I’ve downloaded the BC temperature records only, but I’ve noticed that the temperature has been dropping since 1987 Here in BC…

    • jrwakefield says:

      That’s average. Dont use average, look at summer TMax, its been dropping since 1930.

      • Glacier says:

        True, but this raises an uncomfortable point that warmests don’t like to talk about. The higher the vapor contend of the air, the more moderate the temperature extremes become. If we think of the moon where there is no atmosphere, temperatures are extremely hot and extremely cold. Meanwhile, here on earth the averages increase as the water vapor increases, but the extremes decrease (both hot and cold). You will never hear Saint Suzuki talk about that.

  4. Phillip says:

    a good summary of the warming trends in Canada are in this report starting on page 27.

    Click to access Full-Report_Eng.pdf

    this is a 2014 report, but there is more up-to-date information out there.

    your kitchen table science does not really hold up…

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