Canadian Heat Waves Part 4

Top Ten Percent of Hottest Days

29 stations were selected to check for what is happening collectively with TMax. These stations were selected to have a start year before 1920 and have at least 95% of the records within their date range.
These are those stations:

StnID Station Province Starts Ends Records BaseTMax
1111 CRESTON British Columbia 1912 2006 2700 31.1
1340 VAVENBY British Columbia 1913 2009 2120 32.4
1835 CALMAR Alberta 1916 2007 1965 28.2
1957 RANFURLY Alberta 1905 1991 1613 29.1
2106 LACOMBE CDA Alberta 1908 1993 1991 28.6
2205 CALGARY INT’L A Alberta 1900 2009 2626 28.8
2247 GLEICHEN Alberta 1903 2005 2297 30.2
2364 BANFF Alberta 1900 1994 2360 27.2
2409 LAKE LOUISE Alberta 1915 2007 2230 26.
2490 CAMPSIE Alberta 1912 2009 1998 28.2
2658 BEAVERLODGE CDA Alberta 1913 2007 1950 27.3
2973 MUENSTER Saskatchewan 1904 2009 1930 30.1
3259 SCOTT CDA Saskatchewan 1911 2009 1903 30.6
3270 WASECA Saskatchewan 1907 2009 1927 29.4
3328 SASKATOON DIEFENBAKER INT’L A Saskatchewan 1900 2009 2136 31.2
3533 RUSSELL Manitoba 1912 1990 1631 30.1
3673 SPRAGUE Manitoba 1916 1997 1533 30.6
380 BELLA COOLA British Columbia 1900 2002 1859 28.3
3938 FORT FRANCES Ontario 1913 1995 1346 30.6
3943 MINE CENTRE Ontario 1915 2005 1562 30.5
3952 DRYDEN Ontario 1914 1997 1129 29.7
4333 OTTAWA CDA Ontario 1900 2010 1667 31.5
4547 BRUCEFIELD Ontario 1903 1993 1115 31.2
5208 BERTHIERVILLE Quebec 1919 1994 1118 30.5
5348 DRUMMONDVILLE Quebec 1914 2009 1356 31.
588 FORT ST JAMES British Columbia 1900 2009 2044 27.2
6158 FREDERICTON CDA New Brunswick 1913 2000 1327 30.3
6527 CHARLOTTETOWN CDA Prince Edward Island 1910 1992 1814 27.2
Each station had their top 10% of high TMax from July, regardless of the year, dropped into a table. Those in turn were baselined for each station from 1961 to 1990, the common range used in the science (for what ever reason they give).
From there the anomalies from those baselines were plotted for the entire dataset.
This is the highest TMax anomaly:

The over all trend is down, fewer hot days across all of Canada. The heat waves peaked in the 1940’s, dropping until the 1980s, and flat since. 20 years of no change in heatwaves.

This is the average of the TMax anomaly:

Basically flat over all, with the 1920’s to the mid 1940’s dominating.

The lowest of the TMax anomalies will be very close to a flat line, no fluctuation because this dataset starts from a minumum value for each location to give the top 10%.

This is the number of days in each year. This had to be more restrictive in the stations, 1920 to 2005 was the cut off range. So no stations with a start year before 1920 and no stations with an end year before 2005. This is only 16 stations that met that criteria. If the entire dataset was used the count would be skewed, the numbers too low, because of missing stations in those outside years.

The trend is also dropping. Fewer days in Canada are above the top 10% temperature now than in the mid 1940’s.

No matter how you slice the data, either looking at single stations, or collectively from a range of stations across Canada, the over all trend of TMax is to cooler temps.

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About J. Richard Wakefield

J. Richard Wakefield has published three fiction novels, Blinding White Flash, Blinding White Flash Invasion and The Barn. The sequel to The Barn, The Cunningham Arrests, is going to the publisher in 2015. He was a firefighter for 22 years in Toronto, and a professional computer programmer for 25 years. He lives with his wife, Dorothy, in Southwestern Ontario.
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